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The Indian Rupee VS Gold Trend: How Do They Correlate Each Other?

The Indian rupee and gold are interdependent on each other. Even though it is not used as a primary form of currency like the ancient times, gold still has a strong impact on the Indian rupee. The rupee vs gold trend has a strong correlation between its value and the strength of the Indian currency trading on foreign exchanges.

The international price of gold depends on the strength of the American dollar. So if the value of rupee goes down (when compared to the dollar), then gold prices increase. Gold is typically used as a hedge against inflation. For example during inflation, if you have 20 Lakhs in your bank account and your purchasing strength decreases, but gold’s purchasing strength will be the same and stronger in terms of the US Dollar.

The value of the Indian currency is strongly linked to its imports and exports value. So, if India imports more than its exports, the Indian rupee value declines. Vice versa, if India increases its exports, the value of rupee goes higher. So if India exports more and more gold or has access to gold reserves, then the strength of the currency will increase when gold prices increases. This also increases the value of the total exports. An increase in gold price can create a trade deficit. Basically, if India imports large amounts of gold, its currency will go weaker and the gold price will go higher.

So when the RBI purchases gold, then it will affect the supply and demand of the rupee, and will probably lead to inflation. This occurs due to the reason that banks rely on printing more money to buy gold. This leads to an excess supply of fiat currency.

Also read – Gold Investment: Physical Gold VS Gold ETFs?

The rupee vs gold trend doesn’t always have an inverse relationship. If there is a high demand for gold production, then gold prices increase. But it doesn’t say anything about the rupee, which might just be at a high or low value at the same time. So basically even though the gold can be used as an indicator of the rupee value, it all depends on the conditions that need to analyze expertly to figure the impact they are having on each other.

Financial products and services have their interest rates tied closely to the demand for gold. So gold prices indicate the interest rate trends of any country. During increased rates of interest, people usually sell the metal to receive cash. So basically, an increased gold supply creates reduced rates of the precious metal. Even, lower interest rates transcribe higher cash in customer’s hands. So greater the demand of gold then higher its price.

To conclude, in the rupee vs gold trend, the yellow metal has always had an impact on the Indian rupee. Although the gold standard is not used anymore, gold acts as a substitute for fiat currencies. Gold is thereby used as a hedge against inflation. Gold plays an integral role in foreign exchange too.

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About the Author: Praveen Unnikrishnan

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